Four-dimensional (4D) trajectory is considered to be one of the effective means to reduce the environmental impact of aviation\nwhile increasing capacity and safety. This paper proposes an approach to optimize cruise speed profile subject to wind uncertainty,\naiming to reduce the fuel burn complying with the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) constraints. The approach is based on a\nprobabilistic framework, and the uncertainty propagation is analyzed using a Probability Transformation Method, and the\nprobability distributions of arrival time and fuel consumption are determined. In addition, from an airborne operation perspective,\ntransition profiles need to be considered in the reference speed optimization problem, aiming to improve the rationale of\nthe reference trajectory. Numerical simulations are presented, and the results demonstrate that the speed profiles optimized by this\nmethod are able to meet the RTA constraints in the presence of wind uncertainty, with an average reduction of 7.04% in fuel\nconsumption compared with that of the flight data.
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